| Expected Turnout | This section takes the last 3 similar elections, finds the average, in order to calculate a rough estimate of the number of voters expected to turnout for this specific race. This would be a good starting point for a target universe/model of voters who may turn out when creating your target universe of voters. |
| 50% +1 Win # | This takes the expected turnout for this election and figures out the basic “win number” for a candidate. This is based off of a head to head race where 1 vote decides the election, 50% +1 vote for the victory |
| 52% Win # | This section provides a more accurate target for a win number in a head to head race. If you are running against one other candidate you will want to set a goal of 52% for your win number in order to create a universe of voters and targets and identified supporters. |
| 52% + 25% ID Goal # | This section takes your actual win number and accounts for a vote supporter bleed. If you build in a 25% cushion assuming some voters aren’t going to show up that support you, some will have moved, some may have lied, and just for any reason may have changed their minds. You should have a solid ID pool of supporters heading into election day. |
| Conversation Goal | This provides you, based on your ID Goal number, the number of people you need to actually talk to on the doors and over the phone to, theoretically, hit your ID goal. |
| Shifts Needed | This calculates how many shifts will be needed to get to your goals, at a minimum of 30 doors hit. |
| Our Target Universe/Doors | This, roughly, calculates how many doors you may expect to see in your universe when you create it. This is not set in stone and is dependent upon how aggressive you are in creating an actua universe in your specific race and database. |
| Target Universe/Mailboxes | Same idea here as with doors, mailboxes will be the universe you use when sending mail to voters. This section gives a rough estimate. |
| Target Universe/People | This will be your actual universe of voters. Not narrowed to households, doors, phone, etc. These are the actual folks you need to convince and talk to in throughout the campaign. |
| Target Universe/Phones | This is an estimate based on the number of people in your universe of the number of phones numbers in your universe that may need a call or text. |
| Door Knock Goal (3 passes) | This number takes the total number of doors in your universe and mutliplies it by 3. The goal should be to hit every single knockable door 3 times before your election day. That may not always be possible but this is a pretty standard goal to set for your campaing. Keep in mind, not every door is knockable and some may never get knocked. That is why there are other ways of communicating with voters. |
| Shifts Needed | This calculates how many shifts would be needed to hit your 3 pass door knock goal. |
| Overall Universe Total/Turnout | This is you overall total universe model number. |
| Universe Expected Turnout Total | This is the number of voters you actually build out of your model and expect to turnout. This may not match the actual expected number. |
